机构称2026年泰国存在通缩风险

Core Insights - Thailand faces a risk of deflation in 2026 due to slowing domestic demand and increased competition from imported goods, leading to a growing proportion of declining prices in the consumer price index basket [1][2] - As of January 2026, Thailand's inflation rate stands at -0.66%, marking the tenth consecutive month of negative inflation, which has widened from -0.28% in the previous month [1] - Despite supply-side pressures from declining energy prices, the forecast for the annual inflation rate in 2026 is maintained at 0.4%, supported by rising prices of certain fresh food items and a positive core inflation rate [1] Inflation Trends - The overall inflation rate is expected to remain positive in 2026, but the growth rate is anticipated to slow down, as indicated by the decline in core inflation in the fourth quarter of 2025 [2] - Prices for food and beverages are projected to rise, but the increase is expected to be limited due to weak consumer purchasing power and a lack of additional consumption stimulus measures [2] - The gradual recovery of the tourism sector, combined with intensified global market competition, is likely to constrain price increases in accommodation and transportation related to tourism [2]