新华资产王德伦：A股2026年可期 多维度改革护航长期发展

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market is expected to show a stable and positive development trend by 2026, driven by multiple positive factors such as improved economic competitiveness, the rise of new productive forces, and supportive macro policies [1][2]. Economic Competitiveness - China's overall international competitiveness is continuously improving, which is reflected in the rising valuations of Chinese assets in the capital market [3]. - The economy has shifted from investment-driven to innovation-driven, with technological innovation evolving from following to leading, creating new investment opportunities in the capital market [3]. Policy Environment - Major economies worldwide are adopting fiscal expansion and monetary easing policies, which historically lead to better performance in capital markets [3]. - The institutional environment for the Chinese stock market is expected to improve gradually, providing a more solid foundation for healthy capital market development [3]. Long-term Capital Inflow - Since September 24, 2024, the Chinese stock market has entered an upward channel, supported by policy and institutional frameworks [4]. - To attract long-term capital, three areas of focus are suggested: 1. Cultivating stronger long-term institutional investors by enhancing their operational space and supporting their net asset growth [4]. 2. Expanding investment scope to include overseas ETFs, commodities, and derivatives for institutional investors [4]. 3. Improving the delisting mechanism to ensure a competitive market environment [4]. Asset Allocation Strategy - For 2026, the focus is on assets with long-term value, particularly RMB-denominated assets, with optimism for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [5]. - While equity assets are expected to perform well in the long term, there is a need to lower return expectations due to significant valuation increases since September 2024 [5]. - Specific sectors to watch include innovative technology stocks, traditional manufacturing companies with global competitiveness, and high-dividend blue-chip assets represented by state-owned enterprises [5]. Investment Strategy - The recommended asset allocation strategy shifts from the traditional "721" model to the "442" strategy, which includes 40% stable assets (fixed income, insurance products), 40% equity (A-shares, Hong Kong stocks), and 20% alternative assets (such as commodities) [7].