穆迪股价年内跌近两成，AI业务转化效率引市场担忧

Core Viewpoint - Moody's stock has experienced a significant decline, with a year-to-date drop of 19.10%, reflecting market concerns over the efficiency of its AI business transformation [1] Recent Events - Moody's AI business faces short-term challenges, particularly with its partnership on the AI platform "Moody's Dash," which requires ongoing investment in cloud computing and talent resources. Clients are struggling to accept price increases due to profit pressures, leading to stagnation in return on assets (ROA). Additionally, the private credit market has surpassed $2 trillion, and a potential wave of defaults could negatively impact the valuation of Moody's Analytics (MA) segment. The ESG rating business is expected to face stringent regulatory scrutiny by 2026, with emerging markets mandating the use of local rating agencies, potentially constraining growth [2] Financial Report Analysis - In the third quarter of 2025, Moody's Analytics (MA) reported a revenue increase of 9.4% year-over-year, while Moody's Investor Services (MIS) saw a 12% revenue growth. However, AI-related revenue was not disclosed separately, raising concerns about its ability to offset the slowdown in traditional rating business. A delay in corporate refinancing activities due to economic conditions could directly impact rating revenues. Investors should monitor the cost control and revenue conversion progress of the AI business in the first quarter of 2026 [3] Institutional Perspectives - Wall Street has high expectations for Moody's, but a downgrade by major institutions could trigger a chain reaction of sell-offs. Current stock price adjustments reflect market concerns over the imbalance between AI business investments and returns, insufficient pricing power, and headwinds in traditional business, rather than substantial support. Short-term risks include valuation pressure compounded by macroeconomic risks [4]