2026 Could Be a 'Blockbuster Year' for IPOs. Is the Renaissance IPO ETF a Buy?

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming years, particularly 2026, are expected to witness a significant surge in IPO activity, driven by major players like OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX, with forecasts suggesting record valuations for these companies [1][2]. Group 1: IPO Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts 2026 will be a record year for IPOs in terms of absolute dollar value, following a slow 2025 with only 61 companies going public in the U.S. [1] - The Wall Street Journal also anticipates a "blockbuster year" for IPOs, with SpaceX potentially achieving a valuation exceeding $1 trillion [2]. - OpenAI is preparing for a valuation around $1 trillion, reflecting the high expectations for AI-related IPOs [2]. Group 2: Historical Context and Performance - OpenAI's ChatGPT has significantly influenced the AI market, becoming the fastest app to reach 100 million users in just two months, which may contribute to a strong IPO performance [4]. - The average IPO in 2023 had a first-day return of 15%, consistent with historical trends [4]. - Historical examples show that while some IPOs can surge initially, they may also experience substantial declines shortly after, as seen with Beyond Meat and Airbnb [5]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - For investors looking to capitalize on the anticipated IPO wave without selecting individual stocks, the Renaissance IPO ETF is suggested as a viable option [6]. - This ETF provides exposure to recently public U.S. companies, holding stocks for three years post-IPO and rebalancing quarterly [8]. - Although the fund has underperformed the S&P 500 since its inception, it has outperformed during periods of high IPO activity, indicating potential for future gains in 2026 [10].