Nebius Group's Mushrooming Capex Overshadows Its Hypergrowth

Core Insights - Nebius Group's Q4 revenue reached $227.7 million, a 547% increase year-over-year, driven by AI cloud demand [1] - The company plans to spend $16 billion to $20 billion on capital expenditures (capex) in 2026, following a $4.1 billion capex in 2025 [1] - Nebius projects 2026 revenue between $3 billion and $3.4 billion, with EBITDA margins approaching 40% [1] Revenue Growth - Q4 revenue surged to $227.7 million, up from $35.2 million last year, marking a 547% increase [1] - Total revenue for 2025 was $529.8 million, a 479% rise from $91.5 million in 2024 [1] - The annualized run-rate revenue reached $1.25 billion by the end of 2025, exceeding previous guidance [1] Capital Expenditures - Capex for Q4 was approximately $2.1 billion, up from $416 million in the same quarter last year [1] - Full-year 2025 capex totaled $4.1 billion, primarily for GPUs and infrastructure [1] - For 2026, Nebius anticipates capex of $16 billion to $20 billion to support the rollout of nine new data centers [1] Operational Performance - Adjusted EBITDA turned positive at $15 million, compared to a loss of $63.9 million a year earlier, though below the analyst consensus of $22.55 million [1] - The net loss for Q4 widened to $249.6 million from $122.9 million, attributed to high operating expenses [1] - Operating cash flow reached $834 million in Q4, indicating early positive returns from expansion efforts [1] Strategic Acquisitions - Nebius announced the acquisition of Tavily for $275 million to enhance its AI cloud platform with real-time search capabilities [1] - This acquisition aims to strengthen offerings for AI agents and improve applications such as coding assistance and data analysis [1] Market Positioning - Nebius has secured over 3 gigawatts of power capacity by the end of 2026, exceeding prior plans of over 2.5 gigawatts [1] - Strategic partnerships with major players like Microsoft and Meta Platforms validate Nebius's approach and support long-term demand [1] - Despite concerns over aggressive capex spending, the company is well-positioned to capture market share amid rising demand for data center capacity [1]