Group 1 - The consumer price index (CPI) is expected to show a 2.5% gain year-over-year, returning to levels seen in May 2025 [2][4] - The headline CPI was at 2.7% in December and has been on a downward trend since peaking above 3% in September 2025, with core CPI at 2.6% in December [3][4] - A lower inflation reading could give the Federal Reserve more confidence to lower benchmark borrowing rates without risking inflation resurgence [4][5] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs anticipates a contribution of 0.07 percentage points to core inflation from tariffs, with potential upward pressure on various sectors [7] - The strong jobs report showed nonfarm payroll gains of 130,000 for January and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, which initially caused market concerns about the Fed's rate cuts [8] - A consensus or below reading on inflation could alleviate concerns about the labor market's impact on Fed policy [8]
The January CPI inflation report is due out Friday morning. Here's what it's expected to show
CNBC·2026-02-12 19:55