Crude Oil Price Forecast: Testing Key Moving Average Support

Core Viewpoint - Crude oil is at a critical juncture, with potential for further weakening or a bounce off support levels depending on price movements around key averages [1] Price Levels and Trends - A decisive drop below today's low could indicate further weakness, while closing above the 200-day average at $62.77 for four consecutive days suggests potential support [1] - The price area around Monday's low of $62.67 reinforces the 20-day average as support for an uptrend [1] - A bullish continuation requires a decisive extension above $66.57, with an earlier sign of strength indicated by a rally above Wednesday's lower swing high [1] Upside Targets - Sustaining an advance above $66.57 could lead crude oil towards an internal downtrend line and a 127.2% projection at $67.02, as per the ABCD pattern [2] - The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement target from the recent downswing is set at $67.83, necessitating a breakout above the downtrend line for confirmation of strength [2] Market Sentiment - The 78.6% level remains the primary upside target for crude oil until further market information is available, with potential for buyers to maintain control and extend the advance [3] - An upper downtrend line indicates additional upside potential, although advances are counter to the long-term bear trend [3]