What Today’s U.S. Jobs Data Tells Us About Gold, Silver Prices

Economic Performance - The U.S. economy added 130,000 non-farm payrolls in January, significantly higher than the revised figure of 48,000 in December and above forecasts of 55,000, marking the highest NFP figure since December 2024 [1] - Total U.S. non-farm employment growth for 2025 was revised down to +181,000 from +584,000, indicating average monthly job gains of just 15,000, well below the previously reported 49,000 [2] - The overall unemployment rate decreased to 4.3% in January from 4.4% in December [2] Market Reactions - Following the strong U.S. jobs report, gold and silver futures maintained their overnight gains, while U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index increased, and U.S. stock indexes rallied [3] - The likelihood of a March U.S. interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has dropped to less than 15%, with expectations shifting towards maintaining the current Fed funds range of 3.5%–3.75% [7] - Traders are now anticipating only two potential U.S. rate cuts later in the year instead of immediate action [7] Precious Metals Dynamics - The price action in gold and silver markets suggests that underlying supply and demand fundamentals, such as safe-haven demand, hoarding, and central bank buying of gold, are prevailing over expectations of fewer U.S. interest rate cuts amid a stronger economy [10]