利息成本吞噬财政空间 分析师： 美债收益率被“人为抬高”

Core Viewpoint - The latest forecast from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) indicates that the U.S. fiscal deficit will continue to expand over the next decade, with interest expenditures rising rapidly and taking up an increasing share of total government spending [1] Group 1: Fiscal Deficit Projections - By 2036, the annual fiscal deficit is expected to reach $3.1 trillion, accounting for 6.7% of GDP, while for the fiscal year ending September 30, 2026, the deficit is projected to be approximately $1.9 trillion, or 5.8% of GDP [1] - The continuous government spending exceeding tax revenues necessitates the issuance of government bonds, treasury bills, and notes to finance the deficit, which may require higher yields to attract investors [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Interest Rates - Brian Mulberry from Zacks Investment Management estimates that if the market had more confidence in the U.S. government's ability to control spending and reduce the deficit, the current target range for the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate (3.5% to 3.75%) could be about 100 basis points lower [2] - The current yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is around 4.1%, but Mulberry suggests that it would be more reasonable in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% if not for the fiscal deficit concerns [2] Group 3: Long-term Implications - The expanding fiscal deficit and rising interest costs may undermine the affordability goals emphasized by the Trump administration, as higher borrowing costs compress the fiscal space available for public services and infrastructure [3] - The Treasury's reliance on short-term treasury bills to manage financing costs has kept the 10-year yield relatively controlled, but the CBO warns that net interest expenditures will increasingly contribute to the expanding fiscal gap over time [2][3]