Core Viewpoint - Tencent Music's stock performance has recently underperformed the market, with a decline of 5.80% in its Hong Kong shares from January 2 to February 12, 2026, indicating weak market momentum [1] Stock Performance - As of February 12, 2026, Tencent Music's U.S. stock was priced at $15.14, down 10.63% in a single day, while its Hong Kong stock was at HKD 65.00, down 2.26%. During the same period, the Nasdaq index fell by 2.24% and the Hang Seng index decreased by 0.86% [2] Recent Events - Increased competition is evident as ByteDance's "Qishui Music" has rapidly grown to 140 million monthly active users, putting pressure on the industry landscape. Concurrently, Tencent Music's user growth has peaked, leading management to lower its net user growth guidance [3] Operational Status - The company's social entertainment service revenue continues to decline, with a 2.7% year-over-year drop in Q3 2025. Monthly active users have plummeted by 31.6%. The growth in online music revenue is primarily driven by an increase in average revenue per paying user, despite a 4.3% year-over-year decline in music monthly active users [4] Institutional Perspectives - There is a divergence in institutional views. Daiwa upgraded its rating to "Buy" in January 2026 but lowered its target price. Citibank maintained a "Buy" rating in February 2026, believing the company's current valuation is undervalued and optimistic about new business potential [5] Business Development - The company is actively expanding into new businesses such as offline performances, artist merchandise, and AI social products. In Q3 2025, non-subscription revenue surged over 50% year-over-year, although these businesses have lower gross margins, resulting in a quarter-over-quarter decline in overall gross margin [6]
腾讯音乐股价近期波动分析：市场竞争加剧与业务转型阵痛