智通财经网·2026-02-13 00:21Core Viewpoint - The report from Guolian Minsheng highlights the significant impact of AI and tariffs on market dynamics during the last Spring Festival, with DeepSeek emerging as a key player that challenged the notion of American exceptionalism, leading to a surge in Hong Kong stocks while US tech stocks faced pressure [1][2]. Group 1: AI and Market Trends - The AI industry remains a crucial theme for the upcoming Spring Festival, with expectations for continued tech market momentum and potential recovery in Hong Kong stocks [2][5]. - Major AI models and products are set to launch during the Spring Festival, including ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 and Alibaba's Qwen3.0, which are expected to drive the tech sector [5][6]. - The performance of Nvidia during the holiday period will serve as an important reference for industry expectations and risk appetite [5]. Group 2: Economic and Geopolitical Risks - There are concerns regarding potential tightening of liquidity expectations and geopolitical risks, particularly related to macroeconomic data releases in the US, such as CPI and GDP [10][12]. - The new Fed chair candidate's statements are anticipated to influence market sentiment, although the market has already priced in expectations for interest rate stability [15]. - Geopolitical tensions, especially regarding Iran, could pose significant risks, with potential military actions being a concern that may affect market stability [17][18].