中信建投期货：2月13日能化早报

Group 1 - Domestic natural rubber prices for full latex dropped to 16,250 CNY/ton, a decrease of 150 CNY/ton from the previous day, while Thai mixed rubber prices fell to 15,350 CNY/ton, down by 50 CNY/ton [4] - As of February 8, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory reached 1.296 million tons, an increase of 15,000 tons, or 1.2% from the previous period [4] - The total inventory of dark rubber in China increased to 864,000 tons, up by 1.4%, with specific increases in Qingdao and Yunnan [4] Group 2 - The recent volatility in the market has not been accompanied by significant changes in the fundamentals, with market expectations driving the price fluctuations of RU and NR [5] - Looking ahead, there is optimism regarding tire demand this year, suggesting potential upward price movement for RU and NR, although the timing of demand recovery remains uncertain [5] - With the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, which will last for 10 days, market expectations are unstable, leading to anticipated volatility on the first trading day after the holiday [5] Group 3 - The PX industry in China saw a 2.5 percentage point increase in operating rates to 92.0%, while the Asian industry increased by 1.3 percentage points to 83.7%, indicating a generally ample supply [30] - The PTA industry experienced a 2.8 percentage point decrease in operating rates to 74.8%, reaching a historical low for this time of year, with expectations of continued low supply levels due to maintenance schedules [32] - The EG market is facing increased supply with a 0.6 percentage point rise in operating rates to 76.8%, but demand is expected to weaken, leading to potential inventory pressures in February [34] Group 4 - The bottle-grade PET industry is experiencing a supply contraction, with operating rates remaining stable at 66.1%, and ongoing maintenance expected to support processing fees [39] - The soda ash market is seeing a slight decline in prices, with production increasing to 792,000 tons, but demand is softening, leading to a bearish market sentiment [40] - The glass market is facing weak supply and demand dynamics, with inventory levels rising and production decreasing, indicating a potential for price stabilization [41]