光大期货：2月13日能源化工日报

Oil Market - On Thursday, oil prices fell significantly, with WTI March contract closing down by $1.79 to $62.84 per barrel, a decrease of 2.77%. Brent April contract closed down by $1.88 to $67.52 per barrel, a decrease of 2.71% [2][12] - The IEA's latest monthly oil market report indicates that global oil demand growth will be slower than expected this year, predicting a large supply surplus despite supply disruptions in January. By 2026, a surplus of 3.73 million barrels per day is expected, which is about 4% of global demand [2][12][14] - U.S. President Trump stated that Iran must reach an agreement with the U.S., or else the U.S. will have to enter a "second phase," which would be very painful for Iran. Geopolitical uncertainties are expected to cause significant fluctuations in oil prices as the Spring Festival approaches [2][14] Fuel Oil - On Thursday, the main contract for fuel oil FU2605 rose by 1.09% to 2888 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil LU2604 increased by 0.45% to 3349 yuan/ton. Singapore's onshore fuel oil inventory recorded 22.7 million barrels, a decrease of 1.499 million barrels (6.19%) from the previous week [15] - Despite strong demand for marine fuel ahead of the Spring Festival, short-term supply is ample, and the market expects an increase in arbitrage shipments from Western markets in February, putting pressure on the low-sulfur market structure [15] Asphalt - The main contract for asphalt BU2603 fell by 0.24% to 3327 yuan/ton. The sample shipment volume from 54 domestic asphalt manufacturers totaled 257,000 tons, a decrease of 23.1% week-on-week [16] - The overall supply remains stable, with a significant increase in port inventory for diluted asphalt. The market is expected to show weak supply and demand dynamics as the Spring Festival approaches [16] Rubber - The main contract for Shanghai rubber RU2605 fell by 125 yuan/ton to 16450 yuan/ton. The NR main contract decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 13370 yuan/ton, and BR main contract dropped by 305 yuan/ton to 12715 yuan/ton [17] - The basic supply and demand dynamics are weak, with port inventory slightly increasing. The rubber price is expected to maintain a volatile trend as the Spring Festival approaches [17] PX, PTA, and MEG - TA605 closed at 5220 yuan/ton, down 0.76%. EG2605 closed at 3723 yuan/ton, down 1.09%. PX futures closed at 7312 yuan/ton, down 0.89% [18][19] - The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol in mainland China is at 76.81%, with a slight increase. The PTA load is at 74.8% due to a shutdown of a 2.5 million ton PTA unit [18][19] Methanol - On Thursday, the spot price in Taicang was 2210 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from $261 to $265 per ton. Domestic supply remains stable, while demand is supported by the gradual increase in MTO unit load [20][21] - The decrease in Iranian shipments is expected to lead to a decline in arrivals in February, providing price support [20][21] Polyolefins - The main price for East China PP was between 6520-6700 yuan/ton, with various production margins reported. The market is expected to face upward pressure as downstream factories begin to shut down for the Spring Festival [21] PVC - The PVC market in East China remained stable, with prices for different grades reported. Demand is slowing down as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to a high supply level but weak demand [22] Urea - Urea futures prices rose by 2.79% to 1843 yuan/ton. The market is experiencing a decline in activity as the Spring Festival approaches, with supply levels remaining stable [23][24] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices fell by 0.94% to 1162 yuan/ton, with supply expected to remain high during the Spring Festival. Demand is weak, and the market is expected to face downward pressure [24] Glass - Glass futures prices showed a weak trend, closing at 1065 yuan/ton, with supply levels slightly decreasing. Demand is expected to decline during the Spring Festival, leading to a challenging market environment [25]