光大期货：2月13日软商品日报

Sugar Industry - As of February 10, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume reached 57.5996 million tons, a decrease of 4.7877 million tons or 7.67% compared to the same period last year [2][7] - The sugar content of sugarcane is 12.45%, an increase of 0.15% from 12.30% last year, while the sugar production rate is 10.66%, up by 0.171% from 10.489% last year [2][7] - Sugar production amounted to 6.1404 million tons, down by 403,500 tons or 6.17% year-on-year [2][7] - Current spot prices for sugar in Guangxi range from 5,290 to 5,400 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease of 10 yuan per ton; in Yunnan, prices are between 5,120 and 5,180 yuan per ton, also down by 10 yuan per ton [2][7] - The raw sugar market is under pressure from oversupply, leading to a continued decline in futures prices, reaching a five-year low [2][7] - Domestic market sentiment is cautious ahead of the holiday, with trading primarily in a range-bound manner [2][7] - The correlation between domestic prices and raw sugar is currently weak, but significant fluctuations in the external market during the holiday could impact domestic sentiment [2][7] Cotton Industry - On Thursday, ICE cotton rose by 0.39% to 64.29 cents per pound, while the main contract for Zheng cotton increased by 0.58% to 14,790 yuan per ton, with a decrease in open interest by 2,417 contracts to 694,000 contracts [3][8] - The domestic market is approaching the Spring Festival holiday, necessitating close attention to external market trends and potential macroeconomic disturbances [3][8] - The supply situation for this year is already established, with a recent report indicating a 1.7% year-on-year decrease in intended cotton planting area for 2026 and a projected 5.8% decline in national cotton production [3][8] - As the holiday approaches, textile enterprises are beginning to close, leading to a record high in cotton inventory days for textile companies, limiting the time and space for replenishment needs [4][8] - Overall, the market for Zheng cotton is expected to remain in a range-bound pattern before the holiday, with potential for upward movement in the medium to long term [4][8]