华商基金陈杰：外需好于内需格局下的债券投资应对之道

Core Viewpoint - The core issue in the bond market is finding certainty amid policy and risk fluctuations, as discussed by Chen Jie, the fund manager of Huashang Hongyue Pure Bond Fund and Huashang Hongfeng Pure Bond Fund [1][2]. Economic Overview - In Q4 2025, the domestic economy is running smoothly overall, with structural differentiation, showing stronger external demand compared to internal demand. Exports supported the economy with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 5.4% from January to November 2025 [1]. - Consumer growth is slowing, with the retail sales growth rate of social consumer goods at 1.3% in November 2025, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous value [1]. - Investment is under significant pressure, with a cumulative year-on-year decline in fixed asset investment of -2.6% from January to November 2025 [1]. - Price levels are low, with November's CPI down 0.1% month-on-month and up 0.7% year-on-year, while PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month but decreased by 2.2% year-on-year [1]. Bond Market Analysis - In Q4 2025, the bond market experienced fluctuations due to multiple factors. In October, bond market sentiment improved as trade frictions persisted and the central bank resumed bond purchases, leading to a decline in the 10-year government bond yield to around 1.8% [2]. - In November, the central bank's bond purchases were slightly below market expectations, causing the 10-year government bond yield to stabilize around 1.8%. However, as credit risks in real estate companies emerged, the yield rose to 1.84% [2]. - In December, the Central Economic Work Conference raised expectations for fiscal expansion, but concerns about supply pressure and redemption disturbances led to a peak in the 10-year government bond yield at around 1.86%. The 30-year government bond yield reached approximately 2.28%, indicating a widening yield curve [2]. Investment Strategy - Chen Jie adopts a conservative credit strategy, primarily investing in interest rate bonds. The portfolio duration is maintained at a slightly higher than market-neutral position, with opportunities for tactical trading based on domestic fundamentals and policy conditions [2].