镍价大涨！印尼镍矿开采配额减少30%，“妖镍”又来？业内：镍价短期会震荡、长期形成支撑

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has announced a significant reduction in nickel mining quotas for 2026, setting it at approximately 260 million tons, a decrease of about 30% from 379 million tons in 2025, which has led to a surge in global nickel prices [1] Nickel Price Surge - Recent data shows that nickel prices have experienced significant volatility due to Indonesian policy changes, with both domestic and international prices rising sharply [2] - On February 11, the Shanghai nickel futures opened at 133,400 CNY/ton, surged to over 140,000 CNY/ton during the day, and closed at 139,400 CNY/ton, marking a daily increase of 4.02% [2] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel also saw a daily increase of over 3%, closing at 17,880 USD/ton on February 11 [2] Market Dynamics - The overall nickel market is currently in a state of oscillation, with strong expectations for supply reduction due to quota cuts, but short-term supply has increased due to prior price rises, leading to a buildup of domestic inventory [5] - Domestic nickel companies have seen significant stock price increases, with companies like Greenmeadow and Shengtun Mining rising by 11.57% and 10.33% respectively over two days [5] Company Responses - Greenmeadow has confirmed that its main nickel suppliers in Indonesia are Merdeka and Hengjaya, with long-term supply agreements in place to secure production needs [6] - Shengtun Mining reported that its core production capacity is concentrated in the smelting sector, with minimal direct impact from quota adjustments, and it maintains a full production status [7] - Weiming Environmental stated that its nickel production lines in Indonesia are not significantly affected by the quota cuts, as they do not hold local mining quotas [8] Regulatory Changes - The Indonesian government has suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, particularly affecting restricted products like nickel pig iron and mixed hydroxide precipitate, raising the approval threshold for new smelting projects [8]