Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic landscape at the beginning of 2026 is complex, showcasing a resilient picture of the domestic economy that is progressing steadily towards improvement, contrasting with the market's focus on "structural differentiation" [1] Economic Overview - The domestic economy is advancing under pressure, with ongoing construction of a modern industrial system and positive progress in risk mitigation in key areas, although challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low price levels persist [4][9] - The U.S. economy is experiencing moderate expansion, with slowing job growth and a slight increase in unemployment, while inflation remains high and the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates [4][9] Market Indicators - In Q4, the manufacturing PMI improved from 49 to 50.1, indicating marginal improvement [4][9] - External trade shows strong resilience, with continuous enhancement in export competitiveness [4][9] - Some cities' real estate markets are stabilizing but still exhibit volatility during the recovery phase [4][9] - The average rates for DR001 and DR007 were 1.33% and 1.47%, respectively, down by 15 basis points and 3 basis points compared to Q3 2025 [4][9] - The yield on 10-year government bonds slightly decreased from 1.86% at the end of Q3 2025 to 1.85% [4][9] Fund Management Strategy - The fund manager adjusted leverage and duration based on market conditions during this period, aiming to ensure safety while striving for stable returns for clients [4][9]
在平稳中寻求平衡 华商基金刘昊的债市应对之道
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-02-13 02:14