Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-02-13 02:14Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the shipping rates are expected to remain weak before the holiday, with the April and October months typically being the lowest for shipping rates in a normal year [2][9] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced the cancellation of VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products on January 8, 2026, which may disrupt the shipping schedule and pricing strategies of shipping companies [2][9] - Shipping companies are expected to issue price increase notices in March and April, with MSC's March rate rising to $1800/3000, CMA's to $1750/3100, HPL's to $1835/2935, and ONE's to $1620/2535 [2][9] Group 2 - The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be gradual, with COSCO management indicating that a full resumption in the Red Sea lacks a clear timetable, potentially taking 3-5 months [3][10] - The current detour has become a new normal for customer supply chains, and COSCO is cautious about returning to the Red Sea [3][10] - In the first half of 2026, only four ultra-large vessels over 17,000 TEU are expected to be delivered, suggesting manageable capacity pressure if the Suez Canal does not resume operations [3][10] Group 3 - There are opportunities for arbitrage between EC2606 and EC2610 contracts, with historical data indicating that the highest shipping rates typically occur in July or August [4][10] - The adjustment of contract months will be implemented starting February 10, 2026, with new contracts EC2605, EC2607, and EC2609 being added [4][10] - The market is expected to trade with July as the peak for annual shipping rates based on historical trends [4][10]