在平稳中寻求平衡华商基金刘昊的债市应对之道_每日热闻

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic landscape at the beginning of 2026 is complex, showcasing a resilient picture of the domestic economy that is progressing towards improvement, contrasting with the market's focus on "structural differentiation" [1] Economic Overview - The domestic economy is advancing under pressure, with ongoing construction of a modern industrial system and positive progress in risk mitigation in key areas, despite challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low price levels [4] - The U.S. economy is experiencing moderate expansion, with slowing job growth and a slight increase in unemployment, while inflation remains high, prompting the Federal Reserve to continue lowering interest rates [4] Market Indicators - In Q4 2025, the manufacturing PMI improved from 49 to 50.1, indicating marginal improvement [4] - External trade demonstrated strong resilience, with continuous enhancement in export competitiveness [4] - The real estate market in some cities is stabilizing but still exhibits volatility [4] - Monetary policy maintained a reasonably ample liquidity environment to support economic recovery, with average DR001 and DR007 rates decreasing by 15 basis points and 3 basis points respectively compared to Q3 2025 [4] Bond Market Performance - The yield on 10-year government bonds slightly decreased from 1.86% at the end of Q3 2025 to 1.85% in Q4 2025, showing minimal change [4] - The fund manager adjusted leverage and duration according to market conditions during this period, aiming to ensure safety while striving for stable returns for clients [4]