长江有色：“爆表”非农降息梦碎节前避险资金撤离 13日铅价或小跌

Core Viewpoint - The lead futures market has experienced a significant decline due to macroeconomic pressures, including strong U.S. employment data and changes in silver margin rules, leading to a bearish sentiment in the commodity market [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The overnight lead price in London closed at $1984 per ton, down $10.5, reflecting a 0.53% decrease, with trading volume at 4638 lots and open interest at 177408 lots [1] - Domestic lead prices have become a focal point of decline, influenced by both external and internal macroeconomic pressures, particularly ahead of the Chinese New Year [1] - The lead market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with domestic lead smelting enterprises maintaining normal production and sufficient overall supply, while downstream battery manufacturers have reduced operations [1][2] Group 2: Industry Status - The entire lead industry chain is entering a "Spring Festival holiday mode," with logistics and transportation halting, leading to high finished goods inventory and low raw material purchasing intentions [2] - Major domestic lead companies have met their annual production targets, with stable performance and no significant production changes expected during the holiday period [3] Group 3: Market Strategy - The metal market is experiencing tightening liquidity and increased volatility risk, with recommendations for light positions and cautious observation to avoid irrational fluctuations [4] - Short-term predictions indicate a continuation of weak downward trends in lead prices, lacking rebound momentum due to persistent macroeconomic headwinds and unchanged supply-demand dynamics [5]