可川科技股价持续下跌，业绩预减与AI概念降温成主因

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the stock price of 可川科技 (603052) is attributed to a significant drop in performance, reduced market enthusiasm for AI concepts, and technical adjustments in the market [1] Group 1: Performance and Business Operations - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13 million to 18 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 72.90% to 80.42% [2] - The main reasons for the profit reduction include intensified competition in the electric vehicle sector affecting the sales price of its core business (functional devices), leading to a decline in gross margin; increased depreciation and amortization costs from new projects; rising R&D expenses; and reduced income from financial products [2] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a net loss of 300,000 yuan, a year-on-year decline of 101.4%, indicating ongoing profitability pressure [2] Group 2: Stock Price Movements - At the end of January 2026, the stock price surged due to speculation around the光模块 (optical module) business of its subsidiary, 可川光子, but the company clarified that it had not yet generated revenue from this segment [3] - The market has recognized the uncertainty in performance realization, leading to a shift in investment focus towards other sectors such as liquid cooling and computing power leasing [3] Group 3: Financial and Technical Aspects - As of February 13, 2026, the stock price was reported at 59.94 yuan, with a cumulative decline of 15.60% over the past five days and a price fluctuation of 24.47% [4] - Technical indicators show that the stock price has fallen below the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, with the MACD histogram turning negative and the KDJ indicator entering the oversold zone, indicating significant short-term selling pressure [4] - On that day, there was a net outflow of 33.6893 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors' inflow was insufficient to offset the selling pressure [4] Group 4: Future Development - The company's gross margin has declined from 31.29% in 2019 to 18.69% in 2024, facing risks from intensified industry competition and high customer concentration in its traditional business [5] - New businesses, such as optical modules and composite aluminum foil, are still in the investment phase and are unlikely to support performance in the short term [5]