智通财经网·2026-02-13 03:45Core Viewpoint - The humanoid robot sector is expected to gradually converge by 2026, with Tesla's Optimus moving from the laboratory phase to mass production, highlighting the need to focus on mass production certainty and new technological directions for efficiency improvement or significant cost reduction [1][2]. Industry Core Changes - The humanoid robot industry in 2025 saw significant order placements, primarily from government, data collection, and life service scenarios, with companies like Yuzhu, Zhiyuan, and UBTECH leading in shipment volumes [2]. - The prices of core robot components have significantly decreased due to industrial capital support, although there is still room for improvement in precision and lifespan [2]. - The model end has confirmed the correct path for VLA, with some models beginning to show intelligence, but the lack of sufficient data has prevented the formation of a scaling law cycle in the short term [2]. 2026 Strategy Outlook - The successful iteration of Tesla's Optimus is expected to lead to a large-scale production year in 2026, with key focus areas including Tier 1 suppliers, lead screws, and harmonic reducers, as the supply chain enters a contraction phase [3]. - For flexible robot targets, attention should be paid to technological iterations and cost reduction, with key drivers including improvements in dexterous hands, motors, and lightweight materials [3]. Investment Recommendations - For certainty in direction, focus on Tier 1 suppliers such as Sanhua Intelligent Control and Top Group, lead screws from Hengli Hydraulic and Zhejiang Rongtai, and harmonic reducers from Lide Harmonic and Siling Intelligent Drive [4]. - For technological transformation and cost reduction, key companies to watch include Zhaowei Electromechanical and Hanwei Technology for dexterous hands and electronic skin, Hengshuai Co. and Buke Co. for motors, and Hengbo Co. and Xingyuan Zhuomei for lightweight materials [4].