Crude Prices Climb on Iran Tensions

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices are rising, with crude reaching a 1.5-week high and gasoline a 2.75-month high, driven by escalating US-Iran tensions and geopolitical risks in the Middle East [2][3] - The US is considering seizing Iranian oil tankers and potentially deploying a second aircraft carrier strike group to the region if nuclear negotiations fail, which adds a risk premium to crude prices [2][3] - A stronger-than-expected US jobs report supports energy demand, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 130,000 and the unemployment rate falling to 4.3% [4] Geopolitical Factors - The escalation of geopolitical risks, particularly regarding Iran, is supporting crude oil prices, as any military action could disrupt Iran's crude production of 3.3 million barrels per day and affect the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit route [3] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to restrict Russian crude supplies, which is bullish for oil prices as peace talks show no signs of resolution [6] Supply Dynamics - An increase in Venezuelan crude exports, rising to 800,000 barrels per day in January from 498,000 in December, is contributing to global oil supply and is bearish for prices [5]