墨西哥市场2026年宏观事件前瞻：政策与资金流向成关键变量

Group 1: Core Viewpoint - The Mexican market may experience volatility due to various macro events impacting related funds and stocks [1] Group 2: Industry Policy and Environment - The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is set for a formal review in the summer of 2026, with discussions around origin rules, labor, and energy disputes potentially increasing market volatility [2] Group 3: Policy Situation - The Bank of Mexico is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate to 7% by December 2025, with a potential further reduction to around 6.5% in 2026; inflation is anticipated to return to the target range of 3% by the third quarter of 2026, influenced by domestic and external economic data [3] Group 4: Capital Flow - Data from early February 2026 indicates that investors are increasingly shifting towards international equity funds, with emerging markets experiencing net inflows for the seventh consecutive week, which may indirectly affect the asset allocation demand in Mexico [4] Group 5: Market Environment - External uncertainties, including the Federal Reserve's policy pace, expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, and changes in carry trade structures, may exert short-term pressure on the peso exchange rate and capital flows, subsequently impacting the stock market; the Mexican economy is expected to recover moderately in 2026, but risks related to trade policy and fluctuating inflation need to be monitored [5]