Omdia：预计2026年存储供应短缺进一步加剧 DRAM及NAND价格继续走高

DRAM Market Overview - The DRAM market is experiencing an unprecedented upward trend driven by AI, with expected shipment growth of over 50% year-on-year by 2025, and continued acceleration in 2026 [1] - Demand has expanded from early model training to include inference tasks and AI agents, while structural supply constraints are supporting long-term pricing advantages [2] - Strong demand from servers is rapidly depleting inventories, limiting the ability to buffer shortages through inventory sales, leading to potentially more severe supply tightness in 2026 compared to 2025 [2] NAND Market Insights - Recent contract price negotiations for enterprise SSDs (eSSD) and consumer SSDs (cSSD) exceeded expectations, with quarterly price increases of over 60%, and some transactions seeing price doubling [5] - The average selling price of NAND is projected to approach approximately $0.15 per GB in Q1 2026 (up 70% quarter-on-quarter) and reach $0.18 per GB in Q2 2026 (up 25% quarter-on-quarter) [5] - Micron's NAND business revenue reached $2.7 billion (up 22% quarter-on-quarter), exceeding expectations, with a mid-single-digit growth in bit shipments and a 15% increase in average selling price [5] NAND Pricing Trends - NAND wafer prices continued to rise in January, with month-on-month increases ranging from mid-single to double-digit percentages, particularly for SLC and MLC NAND [6] - Mainstream density products like TLC and QLC saw rapid price increases in January, with some 1TB spot transaction prices soaring over 50% month-on-month [6] NOR Market Dynamics - The average selling price (ASP) of NOR flash is strengthening, driven by robust demand across various applications, including servers, PCs, automotive, and consumer sectors [7] - The NOR flash market is expected to steadily recover to $3.54 billion by 2026, with gradual growth rather than a rapid rebound, particularly in the automotive sector [8] - By 2027, revenue is projected to reach $4.03 billion, primarily driven by incremental growth rather than significant changes in shipment volumes [8]