Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang·2026-02-13 07:06Core Viewpoint - The keyword for the stock market in 2025 is expected to be "innovative drugs," with significant stock price increases driven by the potential of in-development innovative drugs and BD (business development) transactions rather than traditional revenue from already marketed drugs [1] Group 1: BD Transactions - In 2025, China's innovative drug BD transaction total exceeded $100 billion, with notable orders reaching $10 billion, and upfront payments from multinational pharmaceutical companies reaching a new high of $1.25 billion [1] - Landmark transactions include a $13 billion collaboration between Qihuang Dejian and Biohaven/AimedBio in January, marking a milestone for China's ADC technology [2] - In May, 3SBio's deal with Pfizer exceeded $6 billion, setting a record for upfront payments in China at $1.25 billion, highlighting the value of both first-in-class and fast-follow drugs [2] - In July, a $12 billion strategic partnership between Hengrui Medicine and GlaxoSmithKline showcased the depth of early-stage pipelines in leading Chinese pharmaceutical companies [2] - In October, Innovent Biologics and Takeda's collaboration worth $11.4 billion included a cost-sharing model for global R&D, enhancing operational capabilities for future international ventures [2] Group 2: Milestone Payments and Emerging Fields - Several past BD transactions reached milestone payments in 2025, including a $300 million payment to China National Pharmaceutical's subsidiary from Merck and a $250 million payment to Bairui Tianheng from Bristol-Myers Squibb [3] - The focus of BD transactions is shifting from oncology to other therapeutic areas, with autoimmune diseases, metabolism, and central nervous system disorders emerging as new hot fields [3] - Notable deals include the global rights licensing of BTK inhibitor Orelabrutinib for multiple sclerosis by Nocera Biopharma, with a potential total transaction value exceeding $2 billion [3] - The metabolic field is gaining traction, driven by global weight loss trends, with several companies entering into licensing agreements for GLP-1 targeted drugs [3] Group 3: Independent Clinical Trials and Regulatory Approvals - Numerous innovative drug companies in China are advancing their own overseas clinical trials, achieving significant progress [4] - In early 2025, Dize Pharmaceutical's lung cancer targeted drug received priority review from the FDA and was approved in July, becoming the first globally innovative drug independently developed in China to gain approval in the U.S. [4] - Other advancements include breakthrough therapy designations for CS0159 by Kexi Kedi and a Phase III trial approval for a recombinant human albumin injection by Heyuan Biopharma [4] - These developments indicate that the Chinese innovative drug industry is becoming a significant force in global innovation, transitioning from fast-following to original innovation and integrating deeply into the global value chain [4]