智通财经网·2026-02-11 23:11Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains an optimistic outlook on the Hong Kong residential market, predicting a 10% year-on-year increase in property prices and a 5% rise in rents for this year [1] Group 1: Market Predictions - Property prices are expected to rebound by 5% this year after hitting a bottom last year, driven by strong purchasing power from mainland buyers [1] - Overall, the residential market is anticipated to experience an upward cycle that could last for several years [1] Group 2: Company Preferences - Morgan Stanley prefers New World Development (00016), Cheung Kong Holdings (01113), and Henderson Land Development (00012), all rated as "Overweight" [1] - The firm is bearish on Wharf Real Estate Investment Company (00004), assigning it a "Underweight" rating [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Developers are becoming more active in the land market and are raising average prices for new development projects [1] - Despite improved market sentiment, the commercial property vacancy rate remains high, with only prime assets in Central expected to see rental increases [1] Group 4: Cost and Risk Factors - Significant increases in construction costs are likely to compress profit margins for residential projects and hinder the conversion of secondary office buildings or industrial properties into student accommodations [1] - Geopolitical risks and macroeconomic uncertainties may pose downward pressure on the market [1]