合作告吹、净利大跌，康泰生物连遇“倒春寒”

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co., Ltd. has announced the termination of its plan to establish a vaccine joint venture with AstraZeneca Investment (China) Co., Ltd., highlighting the company's strategic challenges amid a declining vaccine industry and significant performance downturn [1][6]. Group 1: Strategic Instability and Execution Doubts - The collaboration with AstraZeneca was seen as a crucial step in the company's "external expansion" strategy, aimed at leveraging the strength of an international pharmaceutical company to expand its vaccine business [2][7]. - The termination of this partnership within a year is attributed to "dramatic changes in the market environment," marking the second major strategic adjustment for the company in recent times [2][7]. - Last year, the company also halted the development of an inactivated vaccine for the original strain of the COVID-19 virus, citing reduced economic and social benefits, indicating potential gaps in strategic planning and execution [2][7]. Group 2: Core Product Pressure and Profit Decline - The company stated that the termination of the joint venture would not significantly impact its operations; however, recent performance indicators reveal underlying pressures [3][8]. - According to a performance forecast released on January 29, the company expects its net profit attributable to shareholders to decline by 63.80% to 75.70% year-on-year for 2025, with non-recurring net profit expected to drop by 68.90% to 79.06% [3][8]. - The decline is primarily due to the impact of adjustments in immunization programs on its main product, the "four-in-one vaccine," along with rising operating costs and increased R&D investments [3][8]. Group 3: Dual Challenges Amid Industry Changes - The global vaccine industry is transitioning from a high-growth phase during the pandemic to a normalization phase, characterized by intensified competition, price pressures, and extended R&D return cycles [4][9]. - The company's recent strategic pullbacks can be viewed as a defensive measure, yet they also reveal its passive position during this industry transformation [4][9]. - The company aims to drive internationalization through a dual approach of "internal innovation + external expansion," but faces obstacles in external collaborations while its core products are squeezed by policy and cost pressures [4][9]. Conclusion - The termination of the partnership with AstraZeneca, the cessation of COVID-19 vaccine development, and the significant profit reduction reflect a challenging period for the company [5][10]. - In the context of an overall industry adjustment, the company needs to reassess its strategic pace, product structure, and risk resilience to avoid losing initiative during industry reshuffling [5][10]. - The ability to achieve a stable transformation through the "dual-driven" approach remains to be tested by the market and time [5][10].