张尧浠:金市再显流动性跳水 回踩支撑仍是看涨机会

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced a significant drop due to a resurgence of AI-related panic leading to a sell-off in tech stocks, which triggered liquidity issues in the U.S. stock market. This resulted in traders selling metals to cover stock losses, alongside comments from Trump suggesting the U.S. "must" reach an agreement with Iran, which diminished safe-haven demand for gold [1][10]. Price Movement and Market Reaction - On February 12, gold prices fell sharply after reaching a high of $5,100.26, entering a trading range of $5,080 to $5,045 before plummeting over $160 to a low of $4,878.77. The day ended with gold closing at $4,921.86, marking a daily decline of $170.97 or 3.36% [3][12]. - The opening on February 13 saw gold prices supported by an upward trend channel, leading to an initial rebound. Additionally, the market absorbed the liquidity sell-off, with U.S. initial jobless claims exceeding expectations and January's existing home sales showing weakness, which continued to support gold prices [3][12]. Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - Attention is focused on the U.S. January CPI data, with market expectations leaning towards an increase in rate cut predictions, which would be favorable for gold prices. The outlook for gold remains bullish, with strategies suggesting buying on dips when prices touch support levels [5][14]. - Technically, gold prices in February have shown a rebound after a drop, maintaining a position above the five-month moving average, indicating that the bearish sentiment from January has likely been exhausted. The new bullish outlook remains valid, with expectations of further strength or a potential consolidation before another upward move [6][14]. Technical Analysis - Daily charts indicate that gold prices fell below short-term moving averages, with bearish sentiment prevailing. However, there is support from the upward trend channel and various moving averages, suggesting a positive outlook for the bull market. Current pullbacks present opportunities for re-entry into long positions [8][16]. - Specific trading levels to watch include support around $4,900 or $4,840, and resistance at $5,020 or $5,095 for gold. For silver, support is noted at $74.00 or $70.90, with resistance at $79.70 or $83.60 [9][16].