存储价格保持强势，模拟芯片周期向上

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the semiconductor industry is experiencing significant growth, with global sales expected to reach $788.8 billion by December 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 37.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.7% [1][4] - China's semiconductor sales are projected to be $212.9 billion in December 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 34.1% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 3.8% [1][4] - The DRAM market is showing strong price increases, with contract prices in December and spot prices in January continuing to rise, and TrendForce forecasts a 144% increase in DRAM revenue to $404.3 billion by 2026 [1][6] Group 2 - The SW semiconductor index rose by 18.04% in January 2026, outperforming the electronic industry by 7.53 percentage points and the CSI 300 index by 16.39 percentage points [2] - The semiconductor sub-industries that performed well include integrated circuit packaging and testing (+32.58%), discrete devices (+20.75%), and semiconductor materials (+19.50%) [2] - As of January 31, 2026, the SW semiconductor index's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 119.15x, positioned at the 91.62 percentile since 2019, indicating a relatively high valuation [2] Group 3 - In Q4 2025, active funds had a semiconductor heavy holding ratio of 11.66%, which is an overweight of 5.6 percentage points compared to the semiconductor market capitalization [3] - The top twenty heavy holdings included new entries such as Baiwei Storage and Changchuan Technology, while some companies like Chipone and Rockchip were replaced [3] - Companies like Zhongke Feimeng and Cambrian saw significant increases in their shareholding ratios, while others like Huahong and Yujie Technology experienced declines [3] Group 4 - The investment strategy suggests that storage prices remain strong, and the analog chip sector is entering an upward cycle, with TSMC expecting nearly 30% revenue growth in 2026 [5] - The report highlights the importance of the AI-driven demand for power-related ICs, predicting an increase in the average utilization rate of global 8-inch capacity to 85-90% by 2026 [5] - Companies in the storage supply chain such as Jiangbolong and Demingli are recommended for investment due to the expected growth in DRAM and NAND Flash revenues [6]