市场屏息CPI 瑞郎避险光环还能撑多久？

Core Insights - The Swiss Franc (CHF) has become a favored safe-haven asset due to Switzerland's political stability, low debt, and diversified economy, outperforming the US Dollar and Japanese Yen over the past year [1] - The CHF appreciated nearly 13% against the USD in 2025 and reached an 11-year high against both the USD and EUR in 2026, although it faced a temporary decline of about 1.2% against the USD on January 30 due to a sell-off in gold and silver [1] - The strong CHF poses challenges for Switzerland's export-driven economy, contributing to low inflation rates of just 0.1%, and may compel the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to intervene to stabilize the economy [1] Market Analysis - The USD/CHF exchange rate is currently in a volatile range, with key support at approximately 0.7650 and potential testing of the 0.7600 level if this support is breached; resistance is found between 0.7800 and 0.7900 [3] - The market is influenced by expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policies and the safe-haven appeal of the CHF, while the SNB's decision to maintain interest rates adds complexity to the monetary policy landscape [3] Economic Forecasts - UBS economists predict a depreciation of the CHF against the USD by about 2% by the end of 2026, with the SNB likely to conduct only sporadic interventions in the foreign exchange market [2] - Analysts from Ebury and MUFG believe that the CHF has solidified its status as the preferred safe-haven currency, with the appeal of the Yen and Dollar diminished due to geopolitical instability [2]