【黄金期货收评】多空交织下黄金维持震荡 沪金日内下跌1.61%

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices are experiencing wide fluctuations due to mixed market signals, including strong U.S. employment data and geopolitical risks [2][3]. - On February 13, the Shanghai gold spot price was quoted at 1104.00 yuan per gram, showing a discount of 6.1 yuan per gram compared to the futures price of 1110.10 yuan per gram [1]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March is 5.9%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 94.1% [1]. Group 2 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for January showed a significant increase in employment, which exceeded expectations and led to a decrease in the unemployment rate, indicating resilience in the labor market [2]. - The labor department significantly revised down the projected non-farm employment numbers for 2025, removing most of the expected job additions for that year [2]. - The market is grappling with the credibility of the January data against the backdrop of the downward revision for 2025, resulting in high volatility in gold and silver prices [2]. Group 3 - New Century Futures indicates that gold prices are maintaining a volatile trend due to strong U.S. employment data, which undermines expectations for a rate cut in March [3]. - Concerns over AI disruption continue to pressure the dollar index, providing support for gold prices [3]. - A decrease in gold ETF holdings has weakened investment demand, while ongoing geopolitical risks and a trend of central banks increasing gold reserves remain long-term supportive factors for gold [3].