去美元化、波动性加剧，美元、日元、瑞郎避险“光环”褪色？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting dynamics among traditional safe-haven currencies, particularly the US dollar, Japanese yen, and Swiss franc, highlighting the latter's strengthening position as a preferred safe-haven currency amid political and economic uncertainties [1][11]. Group 1: US Dollar Dynamics - The US dollar's status as a global reserve currency is under threat due to increasing de-dollarization, with the dollar index dropping 9.37% in 2025 and further declines expected in 2026 [4]. - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts are contributing to the dollar's weakness, with a 75% probability of at least a 25 basis point cut in June, which is expected to support further declines in the dollar's value [5]. - The US fiscal deficit has reached historical highs, with a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 150%, raising concerns about the dollar's long-term stability [5][6]. Group 2: Japanese Yen Volatility - The Japanese yen has experienced significant volatility, with fluctuations driven by market speculation and intervention rumors, trading around 156 to 150 against the dollar in 2025 [7][8]. - The recent political developments in Japan, including the ruling party's electoral victory, may lead to more expansionary fiscal policies, potentially increasing inflationary pressures and prompting earlier interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan [8][9]. - The yen's status as a funding currency may be challenged if Japanese investors shift their behavior, leading to capital outflows from dollar and euro assets back into yen [9]. Group 3: Swiss Franc Strength - The Swiss franc has appreciated nearly 13% against the US dollar in 2025, reaching an 11-year high, and has solidified its position as a preferred safe-haven currency due to Switzerland's political stability and low debt levels [10][11]. - However, the strong franc poses challenges for Switzerland's export-driven economy, with inflation remaining low at 0.1%, raising concerns about deflationary pressures [10]. - The Swiss National Bank is unlikely to respond aggressively to the franc's appreciation, with only minor interventions expected, as the global economic outlook remains optimistic [11].