Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-02-13 09:02Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in nickel prices is attributed to a combination of external macroeconomic pressures and seasonal demand weakness, leading to increased market risk aversion and a sell-off in commodities [2][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai nickel futures market experienced a significant drop, with the main contract closing at 135,190 CNY/ton, down 5,130 CNY/ton or 3.66% [1]. - The average price of nickel in the Changjiang market fell to 140,050 CNY/ton, a decrease of 5,300 CNY from the previous day [1]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - External pressures include a stronger-than-expected U.S. core CPI data, reinforcing expectations for prolonged high interest rates by the Federal Reserve, which contributed to a sell-off in global commodities [2]. - Internally, the approach of the Spring Festival has led to a seasonal decline in demand as downstream enterprises halt operations, while social inventory continues to accumulate, exacerbating the weak market fundamentals [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - As the Spring Festival approaches, nickel supply and demand are entering a phase of relative stability, with downstream enterprises completing their inventory preparations and upstream production remaining steady [3]. - The expectation of reduced nickel ore quotas from Indonesia persists, while domestic nickel refining and recycling operations are concluding in an orderly manner [3]. Group 4: Company Performance - Leading nickel-related companies have reported strong year-end performances, with Greeenme's net profit expected to increase by 40%-70% and Huayou Cobalt's net profit projected to rise by 40.8%-55.24% [4]. - Both companies are leveraging integrated business models to mitigate price volatility risks, with significant revenue growth in nickel products [4]. Group 5: Strategic Outlook - In the short term, nickel prices are expected to be influenced by macroeconomic sentiment, with recommendations to maintain a cautious stance and avoid aggressive buying ahead of the holiday [5]. - Key variables to monitor during the holiday include signals from the Federal Reserve, developments regarding Indonesian nickel ore quotas, and trends in overseas stock markets and the U.S. dollar [5].