科大国创股价受量子通信概念催化上涨，但基本面仍承压

Core Viewpoint - The recent stock price increase of Keda Guokuan (300520) is significantly driven by the hype around quantum communication and other technology concepts, influenced by market sentiment, capital flow, and the company's fundamental situation [1]. Industry Policy Status - Quantum communication is recognized as a national strategic technology area, with recent policies and industry dynamics increasing market attention. Keda Guokuan is viewed as a builder of the quantum communication software ecosystem, leveraging its research background from the University of Science and Technology of China, and has certain technical reserves in quantum software algorithms and industry application integration. The year 2026 is anticipated to be crucial for the commercialization of quantum technology, catalyzing related concept stocks [2]. Stock Price and Capital Performance - Keda Guokuan exhibited a significant stock price increase from February 6 to February 13, 2026, with a cumulative rise of 12.44% and a trading range of 17.00%. On February 12, the stock surged by 5.53%, with a net capital inflow of 187 million yuan and a trading volume of 2.256 billion yuan, indicating strong short-term capital interest in technology themes like quantum communication [3]. Company Fundamentals - The core business of Keda Guokuan focuses on data intelligence applications, smart hardware products, and platform operations. Although the company has made strides in the quantum software sector, its Q3 2025 report and earnings forecast did not disclose specific revenue contributions from quantum communication products. Analysts suggest that the direct correlation between the "quantum technology" concept and actual business performance should be viewed with caution. The company faces fundamental challenges, with a reported 24.16% year-on-year decline in revenue and a net loss of 120 million yuan in Q3 2025. The full-year profit forecast for 2025 indicates a loss between 140 million to 190 million yuan, primarily due to underperformance in digital product operations and asset impairments. The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) stands at -187.77, reflecting a lack of profitability. Market expectations for a turnaround in 2026 are high, with a projected net profit growth of 1040%, contingent on the success of AI+ business expansion and cost control, which carries uncertainty [4]. Future Development - The recent stock price increase of Keda Guokuan is indeed influenced by the market sentiment and capital flow surrounding quantum communication and other technology themes. However, the company's current fundamentals remain in a loss state, and the direct contribution of its quantum communication business to revenue is still unclear. The stock price rise primarily reflects the market's high expectations and risk appetite for cutting-edge technology sectors. Investors should monitor the alignment between concept hype and actual performance improvement [5].