存款再搬家！1月居民存款少增超3万亿，非银多增2.6万亿

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported that as of the end of January 2026, the total social financing stock reached 449.11 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.2% year-on-year growth, indicating a stable support for the real economy amidst discussions on the maturity of large deposits [2][4]. Group 1: Social Financing and Monetary Supply - The total social financing stock increased by 8.2% year-on-year, with a total of 449.11 trillion yuan as of January 2026, despite a month-on-month decrease of 0.1 percentage points [4][5]. - The broad money supply (M2) grew by 9.0% year-on-year, which is significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth rate, supporting the stability of the real economy [4][5]. Group 2: Loan Data - In January 2026, new RMB loans amounted to 4.71 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 420 billion yuan compared to the previous year [5]. - Resident loans in January totaled 456.5 billion yuan, with short-term and medium-to-long-term loans increasing by 109.7 billion yuan and 346.9 billion yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 1.594 trillion yuan and 3.1 trillion yuan [5]. Group 3: Deposit Trends - In January 2026, resident deposits decreased by 3.39 trillion yuan year-on-year, while non-bank financial institutions saw an increase of 2.56 trillion yuan in deposits [6]. - The discussion around the maturity of over 50 trillion yuan in fixed deposits has led to a "deposit migration" phenomenon, where residents are reallocating their savings towards higher-yielding assets [6][7]. Group 4: Financial Market Implications - Analysts suggest that the divergence in growth rates between resident deposits and non-bank financial institution deposits indicates a potential shift of funds towards capital markets, although significant direct investment from residents is not expected in the short term [7]. - The recent monetary policy report indicates a trend where asset management products and bank deposits are experiencing a "see-saw" effect, with funds moving towards asset management products while still remaining within the banking system [7].