工银国际首席经济学家程实发表新春畅想

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the increasing uncertainty and structural conflicts in the global economic landscape, as highlighted in the "14th Five-Year Plan" which describes the current external environment as characterized by "intertwined changes and increasing turmoil" [3][7] - By 2026, the global economy is expected to be in a phase of deep adjustment and order reconstruction, with more frequent external shocks and diverse transmission paths, reflecting a chaotic system characteristic [3][7] - China's economic transition from high-speed growth to high-quality development necessitates a shift in development goals and operational logic, focusing on precise resource allocation, stability in cross-cycle adjustments, and overall resilience of the system [8] Group 2 - High-quality development requires financial resources to effectively serve key areas such as new productive forces, fostering patient capital, and establishing institutional risk-sharing mechanisms [8] - The financial system must guide funds to achieve better matching between industrial cycles and technological cycles, continuously supporting industrial upgrades and the release of potential growth momentum [8] - The transition from a financial power to a financial strong nation is marked by a clear and profound era connotation, where "big" reflects scale and coverage, while "strong" indicates capability and resilience [4][8]