创力集团业绩预降股价震荡，转型预期与资金博弈成焦点

Core Viewpoint - Chuangli Group (603012) anticipates a significant decline in net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, projecting a decrease of 43.96%-53.30% due to intensified industry competition and delays in project delivery [1][2]. Financial Performance - The expected net profit for 2025 is estimated to be between 100 million to 120 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 43.96%-53.30% [2]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders has already decreased by 38.36%, with a gross margin dropping to 36.89% and accounts receivable reaching 2.997 billion yuan, indicating significant cash flow issues [2][7]. Stock Performance - Despite the anticipated decline in performance, the stock price has increased by 33.94% since January 2026, with a price fluctuation of 19.41% during this period [3]. - As of February 13, 2026, the stock price closed at 8.11 yuan, with a year-to-date increase of 34.27% [3]. Market Dynamics - There is a tug-of-war between market concerns over declining performance and optimistic expectations regarding the company's transition to intelligent mining solutions [4]. - The company is collaborating with Huawei on smart mining solutions and has formed a strategic partnership with Chongqing Chuanjiu Mining Construction Co., Ltd., although the effectiveness of this transition will require time to validate [4]. Capital Flow and Technical Analysis - As of February 12, 2026, there was a net outflow of 150.26 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 578.14 million yuan, indicating differing risk appetites between institutions and retail investors [4]. - The stock is currently oscillating between the upper Bollinger Band (8.42 yuan) and the lower band (7.51 yuan), with technical indicators suggesting potential short-term selling pressure [5]. Industry Environment - The policy environment for intelligent mining provides long-term support, but short-term competition in the coal industry and fluctuations in capital expenditure may impact order demand [6]. Valuation - The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) stands at 32.91 times, which is above the industry average, indicating that the market has partially priced in the expectations of the company's transition [8]. Sector Comparison - During the same period, the machinery equipment sector declined by 0.96%, and the specialized equipment sector fell by 0.82%, but Chuangli Group's performance has been relatively independent due to individual stock factors [9].