美国1月CPI涨幅弱于预期！市场降息预期升温 但就业市场趋稳或令美联储继续观望

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the January CPI data in the U.S. shows a lower-than-expected inflation rate, which may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1][3] - The overall CPI year-on-year increased by 2.4%, which is below the market expectation of 2.5% and the previous value of 2.7% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.5% year-on-year, meeting market expectations but lower than the previous value of 2.6% [1] Group 2 - Service sector inflation has significantly increased, with the core service inflation excluding housing rising by 0.56%, the largest increase since January of the previous year [2] - Despite the rise in core service inflation, the year-on-year increase has dropped to 2.67%, the lowest level since March 2021, which is a key reason for the decline in the core CPI [2] - Following the CPI data release, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have increased, with a 30% probability of a rate cut before April and over 80% before June [3] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the CPI data indicates a slight dovish shift in market pricing regarding the Federal Reserve, leading to a weaker dollar and a recovery in the S&P 500 futures [3] - The absence of October CPI data due to government shutdowns and the delayed collection of November data may artificially lower the readings, according to economists [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to follow a clearer path for normalization and is anticipated to cut rates twice this year, with the next cut likely in June [3]