Energy "Dominates" CPI, Watch VIX & Software Beatdown into Weekend

Economic Indicators - The headline month-over-month CPI increased by 0.2%, which is 0.1% lower than expected, while the year-over-year headline CPI is at 2.4%, down 0.3% from last month and 0.1% lower than the forecast of 2.5% [2][3] - Core month-over-month CPI rose by 0.3%, aligning with expectations, and the year-over-year core CPI is at 2.5%, which is 0.1% lower than last month [2][3] Energy Sector Impact - Energy prices decreased by 1.5%, with energy commodities down 3.3% and gasoline prices down 3.2% over the last 12 months, reflecting a 7% drop in gasoline prices [3][4] - Fuel oil prices fell by 5.7%, while new vehicle prices increased by 0.1%, and used cars and trucks saw a decline of 1.8% [3] Transportation and Shelter - Airfares increased by 6.12% in the month, while shelter costs rose by 0.2%, with owner's equivalent rent also up by 0.2% [3][4] - Transportation services contributed positively to the CPI report, increasing by 1.4% [4] Market Reactions - Following the CPI report, the market initially showed a decline of 0.3% in futures but later rebounded to an increase of 0.125% due to softer-than-expected inflation numbers [5] - The 10-year yield decreased to 4.09%, indicating a shift in market sentiment [6] Software Sector Performance - The software sector is experiencing significant pressure, with major companies like Microsoft and Palantir facing challenges [7] - Despite the macroeconomic positivity, the microeconomic outlook for the software sector remains uncertain [9] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data expected next week includes durable goods, GDP, and personal income and outlays, which will provide further insights into the economic landscape [11]