美国1月CPI通胀降温但风险未消，美联储或延续观望模式
Feng Huang Wang·2026-02-13 15:24

Group 1 - The January consumer price index (CPI) in the U.S. recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, the lowest since May 2025, and below the market expectation of 2.5% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.5% year-on-year, matching the expected value and marking the lowest since March 2021 [3] - The report indicates that inflation is cooling, but overall consumer prices remain approximately 25% higher than five years ago [3] Group 2 - The significant drop in used car prices by 1.8% month-on-month in January contributed to the core inflation decline [3] - Gasoline prices fell by 3.2% month-on-month and decreased by 7.5% year-on-year, marking the third decline in four months [3] - Grocery prices increased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [3] Group 3 - Economists suggest that the inflation data may reflect one-time price increases at the beginning of the year and the cost transmission effects from tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [4] - The trade-weighted U.S. dollar index fell by approximately 7.4% last year, which may contribute to inflationary pressures in the future [4] Group 4 - Despite the cooling inflation, the Federal Reserve faces complex policy decisions, aiming to maintain inflation around 2%, a target that has not been met for about five years [5] - The strong job growth reported prior to the inflation data, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%, adds to the Fed's policy challenges [5] Group 5 - Consumer sentiment regarding high prices remains a primary concern, with inflation issues contributing to dissatisfaction with the Biden administration, potentially aiding Trump's political comeback [6] - Companies like PepsiCo and General Mills have indicated plans to lower some food prices to attract price-sensitive consumers, suggesting a potential softening in demand [6] Group 6 - Current signals from surveys and financial markets indicate that neither consumers nor investors are significantly worried about a sharp rebound in inflation [7]