Can Gilead's HIV Portfolio Sustain Its Growth Trend in 2026?

Core Insights - Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, with HIV product sales increasing by 6%, driven by a 7% growth in Biktarvy and a 47% surge in its prevention portfolio [1][2][10] Group 1: HIV Product Performance - Biktarvy holds over 52% market share in the HIV treatment market and is the most prescribed therapy for both treatment-naïve and switch patients [2] - Descovy's sales increased by 31% year over year to $2.8 billion, accounting for more than 45% of the U.S. market share in pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) [3] - The FDA approved injectable lenacapavir (Yeztugo), which offers a twice-yearly dosing schedule, enhancing adherence compared to daily oral regimens [4] Group 2: Financial Projections and Growth Drivers - Despite a $900 million headwind from the Medicare Part D redesign, HIV sales grew 10% when excluding this impact, surpassing management's annual target of 5% growth [2][10] - Gilead expects total HIV sales to grow approximately 6% year over year in 2026, with potential growth of 8% when excluding pricing pressures and channel mix shifts [6] - Early uptake of Yeztugo generated $150 million in 2025, with projected revenues of approximately $800 million in 2026 [5] Group 3: Research and Development Initiatives - Positive phase III results from ARTISTRY-1 and ARTISTRY-2 studies for the investigational BIC/LEN regimen increase the likelihood of regulatory approval, potentially launching by year-end [7] - Gilead is collaborating with Merck to advance its HIV pipeline, with data from studies on islatrovir plus lenacapavir expected in 2026 [8] - Plans to initiate a phase III study evaluating lenacapavir plus broadly neutralizing antibodies are set for the second half of the year [9] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Gilead faces competition from major players like GSK and Merck in the HIV treatment market, with GSK's growth driven by long-acting injectable medicines [11] - Merck markets doravirine and is evaluating a once-daily oral regimen for treatment-naïve adults with HIV-1 infection [12] Group 5: Stock Performance and Valuation - GILD shares surged 45.9% over the past year, outperforming the industry's growth of 19.6% [15] - The current price/earnings ratio for GILD is 17.46x forward earnings, higher than its historical mean but lower than the large-cap pharma industry average of 18.51x [16]