Rivian Hasn't Stopped Losing Money on Its EVs, but Is It a Buy Anyway?

Core Insights - Rivian has reported its first consolidated gross profit of $144 million in 2025, marking a significant improvement from a loss of over $1.3 billion in 2024, driven by cost reductions and software revenue [1] - Despite this milestone, Rivian continues to face challenges with a $3.6 billion net loss in 2025 and expects adjusted EBITDA losses between $1.8 billion and $2.1 billion for 2026 [1] - The company is betting on the upcoming R2 midsize SUV, which is expected to launch in Q2 2026 at a starting price of $45,000, targeting a delivery growth of 47% to 59% in 2026 [1] Financial Performance - Rivian's automotive gross profit remained negative at $432 million for 2025, indicating ongoing losses on vehicle sales [1] - The stock has seen a decline of 82% from its IPO price of $78, closing at $14, and has delivered losses across various time frames, including a 29% drop year-to-date in 2026 [1] - The company anticipates pressure on automotive gross profit in the first half of 2026 due to the ramp-up of R2 production, with expectations for improvement later in the year [1] Market Context - The global EV market has cooled, with a 3% year-over-year decline in sales in January 2026, and significant drops in North America (33%) and China (20%) [1] - Rivian's R2 SUV aims to compete with Tesla's Model Y, but the company may have missed the optimal launch timing due to the current market conditions [1] - Overall new-vehicle sales are projected to decline by 2.4% in 2026, influenced by economic headwinds and policy uncertainties [1] Technological Developments - Rivian is venturing into AI hardware with its in-house Rivian Autonomy Processor (RAP1), which will debut on the R2, enhancing its advanced driver-assistance and autonomy features [1] - The RAP1 chip offers 2.5 times better performance per watt compared to previous Nvidia processors, supporting Rivian's goal of achieving Level 4 autonomy by the end of the year [1]