What Fueled KEY's NII Expansion in 2025 Despite Easing Rates

Core Insights - KeyCorp's net interest income (NII) increased by 23% year-over-year to $4.67 billion in 2025, driven by strong commercial loan growth, improved deposit trends, lower funding costs, and balance sheet optimization, despite Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][8] KeyCorp's NII Growth Drivers - KeyCorp's NII (TE) experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.8% from 2020 to 2025, rebounding strongly in 2025 after declines in 2023 and 2024 due to high deposit costs [3] - The commercial and industrial (C&I) loan portfolio grew by 9% in 2025, while the bank reduced lower-yielding consumer loans, enhancing asset yields and supporting NII growth [4][5] - Effective balance sheet repositioning, lower funding costs, and disciplined deposit pricing contributed to the NII growth in 2025 [5] Regional Peers Performance - PNC Financial Services Group reported a 6.6% year-over-year increase in NII (TE) to $14.5 billion, supported by lower funding costs and steady loan growth [2] - Huntington Bancshares' NII (TE) rose by 12% to $6 billion, driven by strong organic loan growth and net interest margin (NIM) expansion [2] NII Outlook for 2026 - KeyCorp anticipates an NII (TE) increase of 8-10% in 2026, with fourth-quarter NII projected to reach approximately $1.3 billion and NIM expected to expand to 3.00-3.05% [6][8] - Average loan growth of 1-2% and maintained deposit betas in the low-to-mid-50% range are expected to further support NII growth [6] Stock Performance - KeyCorp's shares have surged by 23.5% in the past three months, outperforming the industry's growth of 19.5% [7]