Gold Touches $5,000 As Inflation Drops To 2.4%, Polymarket Traders Expect $5,500 By Q3 - SPDR Gold Shares (ARCA:GLD)

Group 1: Inflation Data - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year-over-year in January, below the 2.5% consensus estimate, marking the lowest inflation reading since May 2025 [2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, decreased to 2.5% annually from December's 2.6%, the lowest level since March 2021 [2] - Month-over-month, core CPI increased by 0.3%, meeting expectations [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Rate Cuts - Softer inflation data supports expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets pricing in at least two cuts in 2026 despite a stronger-than-expected jobs report [3] - Polymarket indicates a 69% probability of gold reaching $5,500 or higher by the end of June, reflecting bullish sentiment [4] - The market also shows a 27% probability for two rate cuts this year, with three cuts closely behind at 26% [4] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Central banks are accumulating gold at a record pace, reassessing geopolitical neutrality after the 2022 freeze of approximately $300 billion in Russian reserves [5] - Thinner inventories in London have created conditions for price squeezes, with rallies accelerating as investor flows absorb remaining metal [5] - Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, while cooler inflation readings support continued Federal Reserve easing [5]