Toll Brothers to Report Q1 Earnings: Here's What Investors Must Expect

Core Insights - Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) is set to report its first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on February 17, after market close [1] - The company's adjusted earnings in the last reported quarter missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.9% and declined 1.1% year over year, while total revenues exceeded the consensus mark by 3% and increased 2.7% from the prior year [1] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal first-quarter earnings per share (EPS) has increased to $2.05 from $1.93 over the past 60 days, indicating a year-over-year growth of 17.1% [3] - The consensus estimate for total revenues is projected at $1.84 billion, reflecting a 0.9% year-over-year decline from $1.86 billion [3] Revenue Performance - Toll Brothers' top-line performance is expected to decline year over year due to ongoing uncertainties in the U.S. housing market, with weak homebuyer sentiment amid high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty [4] - The company anticipates home deliveries to be between 1,800 and 1,900 units, down from 1,991 units delivered in the same quarter last year, representing a year-over-year decline of 7.3% [5] Pricing and Margins - The average selling price (ASP) of delivered homes is expected to be between $985,000 and $995,000, up from $924,600 in the year-ago quarter, indicating a year-over-year increase of 6.9% to an expected $988,200 [7] - The adjusted home sales gross margin is expected to be 26.25%, reflecting a contraction of 60 basis points year over year, while SG&A expenses as a percentage of home sales revenues are expected to rise to 14.2%, up 110 basis points year over year [11] Backlog and Market Conditions - The total backlog for the fiscal first quarter is expected to be 5,173 units, down 18% year over year, with potential revenues declining 13.2% to $6.02 billion [12] - The company faces challenges with housing delivery softness and margin mix pressures, alongside elevated SG&A expenses due to increased payroll, marketing, and insurance costs [10][9]