【环球财经】IEA下调2026年全球石油需求增长预期

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 down from 930,000 barrels per day to 850,000 barrels per day [1] Supply and Demand - In January, global oil supply decreased by 1.2 million barrels per day to 106.6 million barrels per day due to extreme winter weather affecting North American production and production/export limitations in Kazakhstan, Russia, and Venezuela [1] - IEA projects that after an increase of approximately 3.1 million barrels per day in global oil production in 2025, global supply will increase by another 2.4 million barrels per day in 2026, reaching 108.6 million barrels per day [1] Refining Activity - Global refinery crude processing fell from a historical high of 86.3 million barrels per day in the previous month to 85.7 million barrels per day in January, attributed to the start of refinery maintenance season and declining profits [1] - IEA anticipates that the average global refinery processing volume will increase by 790,000 barrels per day in 2026, reaching 84.6 million barrels per day, which is lower than the nearly 1 million barrels per day increase expected in 2025 [1] Inventory Levels - Global oil inventories are projected to increase by 477 million barrels in 2025, equivalent to an average daily increase of approximately 1.3 million barrels [1] - Preliminary data indicates that global oil inventories increased by 49 million barrels in January 2026 [1]