创力集团股价高位震荡，业绩下滑与转型预期博弈

Core Viewpoint - Chuangli Group's stock price is experiencing high-level fluctuations due to the interplay between fundamental performance pressures and market expectations for intelligent transformation [1] Performance and Operational Situation - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 100 million to 120 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 43.96% to 53.30% [2] - The decline is primarily attributed to intensified industry competition leading to reduced gross margins and delays in the delivery of large-scale projects [2] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders has already decreased by 38.36%, with gross margin dropping to 36.89% [2] - Accounts receivable reached 2.997 billion yuan, highlighting significant cash flow issues [2] - Despite these challenges, there is optimistic market sentiment regarding the company's collaboration with Huawei on smart mining solutions and the long-term opportunities presented by coal mine intelligent policies [2] Financial Situation - Since January 2026, the stock price has increased by 33.94%, with a price fluctuation range of 19.41% [3] - There is a notable divergence in capital flow, with significant net inflows and outflows observed on different dates, indicating varying risk preferences between institutional and retail investors [3] Technical Analysis - As of February 13, 2026, the stock price is oscillating between the upper Bollinger Band (8.42 yuan) and the lower band (7.51 yuan) [4] - The MACD indicator shows short-term divergence, while the KDJ line indicates a pullback pressure after being overbought [4] - The 20-day moving average support level is at 7.96 yuan, with a resistance level at 8.42 yuan, intensifying short-term volatility [4] Company Valuation - The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 32.91 times, which is above the industry average, indicating that the market has partially priced in transformation expectations [5] - In the context of a 0.96% decline in the machinery equipment sector, the company's performance remains relatively independent due to individual stock factors, with high valuation exacerbating volatility risks [5] - Overall, the high-level fluctuations in Chuangli Group's stock are a result of declining performance, transformation expectations, capital market dynamics, and technical pressures [5]