4 Signs That Bitcoin Is in the Early Stages of a Bear Market: How Long Could It Last?

Core Insights - Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a significant decline of 23.4% in 2025, with current trading prices at $67,214, indicating sustained market pressure and raising concerns about the potential continuation of the downtrend [1] Investor Sentiment - Investor flow data indicates a shift towards bearish sentiment, as new investor inflows have turned negative, suggesting that the ongoing sell-off is not being countered by new capital entering the market [2] - In bull markets, capital typically increases during price declines, while early bear markets are characterized by capital withdrawal amid weakness [2] Market Behavior - Current market conditions resemble post-all-time-high transitions, where marginal buyers exit and price movements are driven by internal rotation rather than net inflows, indicating early bear market conditions with contracting liquidity [3] - Without renewed inflows, any upward price movements are likely to be corrective rather than indicative of a trend reversal [3] Technical Analysis - Historical cycle data suggests that Bitcoin may face further downside risk, as previous major bear markets saw prices bottom below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from prior cycle peaks [4] - The most recent bear market bottom was approximately 45% below the 0.618 retracement threshold, indicating a pattern of progressively shallower declines [5] - If Bitcoin were to bottom 30% below the current cycle high's 0.618 retracement level, it could still reach around $42,000 [5][6] Market Cycle Indicators - The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator shows that bearish conditions began in October 2025, but it has not yet entered an extreme bear phase, suggesting that further declines may still be possible [7]