S&P 500 and Dow Rally as Cooling Inflation Data Ignites Rate Cut Optimism; AI Capex Concerns Linger

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is showing resilience, with major indexes trending higher due to a positive inflation report suggesting the Federal Reserve's restrictive policy may be nearing its end [1] - Major market indexes are largely in the green, with the S&P 500 trading between 6,500 and 7,000, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining over 150 points, and the Nasdaq Composite up approximately 0.4% [2] Inflation Data - The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a month-over-month increase of just 0.2%, below the consensus estimate of 0.3%, and a year-over-year CPI of 2.4%, the lowest since early 2024 [3] - This "muted" inflation reading has led traders to price in a higher probability of a rate cut in the second quarter, benefiting growth-oriented equities [3] AI Capital Expenditure Trends - The combined AI-related capital expenditure for Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms is expected to exceed $650 billion in 2026, reflecting confidence in long-term AI demand but raising concerns about near-term free cash flow [4] - Amazon is expected to generate significant cash flow, but most is being reinvested into data centers and GPUs, limiting buybacks or dividends [5] - Microsoft is experiencing slight margin pressure due to costs associated with Azure AI workloads, while Nvidia benefits as a primary supplier of hardware for these infrastructure projects [5] Corporate Earnings and News - Restaurant Brands International reported an 8% organic growth in adjusted operating income for full-year 2025 [6] - Apple is adjusting its supply chain in India to mitigate potential tariff impacts [7] - Tesla projects vehicle delivery growth of 47% to 59% for the 2026 fiscal year [7] - Baxter International shares are under pressure following an earnings miss and cautious forward guidance [7] - Advance Auto Parts reported steady performance in a challenging retail environment [7] Upcoming Market Events - U.S. markets will be closed on February 16th for President's Day, with focus shifting to the December Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index upon resumption of trading [8]